"countdown."o opene i'm anna edwards. headlines. the we have days to go. referendum campaigns make their final push in scotland. the in is slightly ahead. ischina's stimulus boosted said to have injected billions of dollars into its largest bank. >> and alibaba arrives in london. they meet investors a day before what might be the biggest ipo ever.
>> hello. welcome to "countdown." i'm mark barton. >> and i'm caroline hyde. >> there's a battle of scotland's future. the recent polls show the gap between the two campaigns is tightening to four percentage points as they make a final push to win over voters ahead of tomorrow's referendum. let's get to the scottish capital where an edwards is following the story -- anna edwards is following the story. what is the latest update? >> thanks very much. good morning. let's reiterate the polling conclusions. no campaignput the ahead, but not by anything that could be described as a comfortable margin. the no camp is at 52%.
yes camp at 48%. all of these polling companies are showing a reduced level of support for the no campaign compared to the last time that they reported. the man who runs the polls has said a number of times that he's putting the gap between no and yes at two percentage points. campaigning for both sides. air and open letter has been written. don't let this opportunity slip through our fingers. it is a greatest and most empowering moment any of us will ever have. side, the latest international figure to step into the fray and author his opinion is he thinks the scots do not want up these outside international perspectives should he once the u.k. to stay together. he is worried about instability
and what could happen to the scottish economy. offeringhat the is involves -- that is just president bill clinton's point of view and he doesn't get a vote. heart question is at the of any assessment of scotland's future. i know you have been speaking to someone who is at the heart of that today. >> absolutely. was turned group into an international oil and gas services enterprise. he wrote a report earlier in which he talks about the range of billions of barrels of oil remaining in the north sea. a reserve that could be tapped. he has been angered by the fact that they have jumped on that figure of 24 billion barrels of oil.
reluctant about getting into the conversation of the oil reserves in the context of this referendum. was on what the latest the level of reserves existing. one reason i got was involved in that it has been based on one side or the other expressing their views. in the last couple of weeks i came out again last week which is frankly based on almost fantasy in terms of potential news that might produce physics -- significant reserves. it might as well say scotland is enriched with coal, but we can exploit it because it is not viable. there are comments coming from that side. i'm of no to say is
political affiliation it on. what i want is for the scottish public to make a decision based wesomething like reality cannot vote for an independent scotland for things that we hope will happen in 40 years time because the next an aeration will have to don't that. wood stresses the level reducedction and the tax that will mean. the yes camp would blame the youth came -- u.k. government. -- lack ofonsent incentives. i'll tell you what else is coming of the program -- we will speak to the scottish chambers of congress. he has stayed impartial throughout this debate. we will get there sounding on what the businesses say about
that. we'll speak to the conservatives . we all see her from scotland's first billionaire. he made his fortune in fashion and sports and retail. now he is back in startups. we will talk about that and what he thinks about us: referendum. he has also remained in partial. he says that is the place to go to find a partial material to help voters make up their minds. all of that coming up on "countdown" and beyond. >> let's get to breaking news. a spanish clothing company known as zara coming out with first-half results. it is right in line when you look at the first half of it. earnings are coming in clearly basically completely flat from the previous year. short of that is
one billion figure. it is no worse than this time last year. sales are climbing 5%. what is happening here is the foreign currency market -- we're seeing pressures continuing to hurt big european players. it is starting to ease. in the first quarter, we saw fx of the euro being stronger in emerging markets. it hurt profits by about 6%. something stinks it will not be as bad in the second quarter. maybe about 4% negative impact. sales continue to rise. when you bring that home and transfer that into euros, it will not be quite as much under bottom line. >> and two of its biggest markets are russia and china. >> yeah. >> those of the two big markets. they had a big current see impact. weakeningy have had
economic data coming from china. you see the stimulus being unveiled. it is going to five biggest banks and china. and russia, the economy been hurt with the tensions in ukraine. not dissuading and continue to plow into the emerging market. this is where they see their future. signs are looking pretty good. les are up 10% in-store and online from august through september. clearly looks like the two to three is looking pretty good. we're getting numbers in line. --and a heavy expensing expansion program. they're merging up to hundreds of small stores and in neighboring ones in hong kong and also to places. >> amazing. 25% of sales come from emerging markets. clearly the way they want to go. billion ejecting 500
into the nation's largest banks. that is according to a government official familiar with the matter. stephen engle. what do we know about this? >> good morning. it is interesting i got an e-mail from an economist. she put out a note wondering whether the china central bank just blinked. obviously they don't want to add broad stimulus. they do need to offer i guess you could call it a kickstart to the sputtering economy here. .com will scene it of liquidityillion to the top five banks. them.f china being one of through standing lending facilities with a repayment tender of the few months. it is short term liquidity.
they lend the big five state owned banks 100 billion yuan each. as one might expect, we had a jump in banking stocks. the hong kong market is up-to-date good time is when your interests rate fell as one year expect -- one interest rate fell as one would expect. the move is "like printing money." the immediate impact is similar to 50 basis point cut in the reserve ratio requirement of all the banks. it is much more targeted than a triple archive or an interest rate cut. move.s another i just one could say an unexpected move from the authorities in china try to stimulate, but also not build up a bubble again. stimulus package? could it be considered as such?
it is stimulus. is it a package? to the state owned banks, it is very targeted. the standing lending facility, it is money for the big state owned banks to lend. it is not broad-based. these are policy lenders. supposedly this lending in which they borrow this liquidity from the central banks and then they are to lend it to so-called quality are worse. it will not -- so-called quality borroweres. tois a more aggressive move salvage a sluggish economy. it is interesting to see what the next move would be if that staggering economy doesn't get up on its feet again. >> good to chat with you. stephen engle live in beijing. >> you could join us in the conversation on twitter.
>> the currency union is incompatible. there would be certain adjustments to be made. business would get over it and move on. >> there is a lot of plumbing that need to be done. it could increase costs. scottish consumers might be a disadvantage at the overall costs. of aen you are at 5% larger political entity, your voice is not heard. >> the reality is there are extra costs. the uncertainty for scotland is overwhelmingly
on the negative side. scream.l [laughter] >> just some of the economist business leaders is speaking to in the run-up to the scottish referendum. 24 hours until the polls open. there is a narrow lead over the yes vote. you are not going to scream, are you? >> no. it is really important. >> sovereign risks is your thing. >> yeah. >> will be the impact it we see a yes vote on the sovereign scotland rating? >> we have had this before like with czechoslovakia. new policy if there's a new sovereign. we run them through sovereign model.
important.what is we look at the politics of the policies, finances and how they could stack up. were would this likely pop out? we are paying to respect to the vote on the sovereign will of the scottish people. it has certain reason to do with uncertainties. you cannot argue there will be change. there will be negotiations and other things. the uncertainty will clear eventually. we will look at what happened to the fiscal position and the balances. the fiscal public and the bank of payments that we do not know about. we have a lot of data on the original scotland.
you know what about the payment would look like. have a cookie would crumble with the separation of the u.k. they will not get the official transfers. that might turn out to be -- it will not be to disastrous. there is this question about the currency. depending on negotiations, re-think it is in the interest of u.k. and scotland to manage and fortiation process the u.k. to have a strong and stable scotland and vice versa. say this is your rating, your sovereign rating for scotland. where is that it can -- akin compared to others? pain, is equivalent to s south africa, india. the ratings in that low
investment-grade range. it is the policy uncertainties that will basically drag it down a little. on the other hand, they might end up inheriting very little debt depending on negotiations on splitting that balance sheet. if the u.k. wants to play hardball and not give any assets, including the support find the financial system is unlikely i would say. scotland could say we will not take any of your debt. that is not a bad position to be in. >> is colin doesn't take the -- if scotland doesn't take the debt, the u.k. would take it? what does that mean for the u.k. without scotland? numbers areark scotland is about 10% of the u.k. gdp. if there is a yes vote, be 10%ically it would
less gdp for the u.k. the ratios would deteriorate. be an extra burden for the u.k. an interim process if you like. initially negative. we have got the underlying trajectory of the public debt. would start to fall anyway over the next five years. >> good the markets be hit too hard? -- could the markets be hit too hard? >> it is in improving story. we have got to add scotland on to that. even with the negative, it is not sufficient to lead to a
i'm caroline hyde. guest.ejoin our we were talking about all things scotland. it is a big week in terms of the u.s. economy and the u.k. economy and the fed reserve. a feeling for where interest rates may be going in the future. janet yellen says -- >> i would do a bit of word watching to see if there's any change from the previous one in the line whether the tones were hawkish. they're holding interest rates at zero. will they raise expectations? markets, there will be any change on the interest rates for at least six months and we think about june next year. of course, the tapering -- the balance sheet.
will stop-- expanding. that means number stimulus. things will run off of the balance sheet. >> what about a considerable period with the word patience as alan greenspan did in 2004? he wanted to give the market something so it is not a jolt. the ports ofrtant to medication to medication and be careful with your words. before in had a case which they understand the importance of communications. >> yes. to last thing they want is jolt the markets or shop the markets. the markets. it will be worth looking at. >> the bank of england minute we are looking at, are we expecting any change? gives the economy bit more
room to keep things going as they currently are. certainly events are important. you want woodford to settle a bit before you start making a decision on policy. he got his hands full with managing a possible currency union. that is assuming there is a yes vote. there's a bit more waiting room if you like, patience if you like. >> jan, good to chat with you. jan randolph at ihs global insight. >> the kremlin has placed one of russia's most richest man under house arrest. after the break, we are in moscow to find out exactly why. ♪
months or six months or one month or one week as long as all of those periods that it has risen. on the debate centers phraseology. will they still drop this considerable phrase from its statement to 32% of fixing the economy. the fed willsay stick to his pledge to keep rates near zero for a considerable time after it finishes its bond richest is. the language could spook investors. that is what it is all about tonight. the blue dollars but index is rising at an important announcement. things over to the bloomberg top headlines. present obama has discussed the ebola outbreak as a security threat. he plans to send 3000 troops to
the region to help stem the spread of the virus. the mission will cost hundreds of millions of dollars. the center for disease control -- obama made clear that the international community must step up to the crisis. , andspitals, clinics treatment centers that do exist have been completely overrun. the health system is near collapse in these countries. patients are being turned away. people are literally dying from the streets. >> china said to be pumping 500 billion yuan into the nation's top banks. the people's bank of china -- the credit expansion is an attempt to provide growth for decreasing the dangers in bad
loans. investors are waiting for the latest minutes from the bank of england. and they a 72 berdych put it to raise the bankrate. -- bank rate. >> they own some of the leading world's luxury companies -- five months sales rose. the estimates from analysts we have surveyed showed an increase of 6%. that is a bit of a disappointment. basis, we have five months sales growth. zero no growth whatsoever. analysts estimated a gain of that figure as well. it seems to be america that is picking up the slack from a very
disappointing asia pacific region. they're slowing revenue growth from america. it has fueled growth in past years. it is now slowing. it is shifting to that u.s.. sales.xpanding online brands including a swiss watch acre. askingway, if you are why they're releasing these sales figures, they do it every year. instead of a once a year thing -- there's no growth in asia. that is a bit of a trend, isn't
it? >> it is. weakness. currency inclining.c actually japan is where we have seen significant currency eagerness. when you bring it back into the swiss francs, you get down to about 14% in terms of sales. i think this is in the theme for the whole part of the year. analysts are saying they should start he's a little bit. london.a.m. in leaders will meet today. we have details of what is happening in the meeting.
what can we expect there? >> good morning. india's largest commercial -- the trade between the two countries has exceeded $60 billion. the india trade deficit with china has grown steadily to about a full quarter of the deficit as of last year. china havey of manufactured of a higher value. india is going to seek greater market access from china. especially in the market as well.
>> time for today's company news. china mobile's largest carrier onthe company will focus selling cheaper phones that do not require subsidies this quarter. apple may have to wait until next year get the approval for the new iphone after regulation hurdles. microsoft increased its dividend by 11% and is replacing to longtime directors for when they retire this year. you have an aggressive that making changes.
they're emphasizing making microsoft software products available for all types of devices and announcing 18,000 job cuts. estimates aslyst the company expanded outside of its home markets boosted online sales. 6% during the period. the brazilian carrier -- the move will challenge them. this is according to people familiar. shares jumped almost 5% yesterday in san paolo. today scotland wakes to the final day of campaigning ahead of the referendum and the strength of the scottish physicist has been the focus of much of the debate on both sides.
joining us with the business angle on the referendum. >> thanks very much. we heard a lot, haven't we? some are choosing to remain on the sideline. let's get to business here in london and get their perspective. we are joined by a liz cameron. thank you for joining us. you as an organization have decided to remain impartial during this whole debate and referendum. why is that? why do you feel it is not important to come down on one side of the event or another? >> it doesn't mean that we have been inactive. we took of you as a representative organization. emotions are very high. it is not clear. as an organization, we have
debated opinions. some are supporters of the yes campaign. it would be fundamentally wrong and take a view one way or the other. that said, we have been very active over the last two years and facilitating and communicating and informing the business community. >> and what have businesses been telling you? what have their biggest worries been? >> the main concerns have been about the currency. that was the number one issue that came out. at the end of the day, change will be inevitable whichever way they go. >> you mentioned the currency.
you call them both campaigns to give more answers and answer more questions surrounding his debate. businessesd that have the audience they need to make informed decisions? the situation has improved, but we still don't have the factual information it says this is how it is going to look. unfortunately, we will not know until after the vote is taken on friday when it is a yes no, there would be negotiation. if it is a no vote, obviously it will be business as usual as far as the currency is concerned. >> you are remaining impartial. we hear a lot from economist and in the investment community and people in the city of london and elsewhere. the eyes of the world are watching. what we hear from things like deutsche bank and their analysts and economists warning about all
kinds of dire outcomes that could happen? if there were to be a yes vote? does that kind of message worries scottish businesses? of whetherssage there'd be some kind of sterling crisis? all of those messages must be pretty worrying. we have heard from the other side of the camps as well. whether a business is small, medium, or large, we will take a view of the risk associated with either track. as business people, we will assess risk. it is risk. we're used to dealing with risk. no doubt about it. it would have impact on the market. >> they say they want to see more diversified economy in scotland. what is opportunity for scottish businesses? >> either way i guess.
x or more. -- >> where are the opportunities? >> in terms of the food and drink, we have seen quite a bit in our economy the last four or five years in terms of exporting markets. business can't continue to do business in scotland and will continue to do it. this is about scotland being absolutely open for business and open for investment. we are here to do business. >> what about some people's business attitude toward your? many have been into this dependence debate. there mark -- maintaining a presence must be important. >> it is absolutely very important. it is a massive market. it is a trading friend.
it is very important that we continually to have access. >> thank you very much for it joining us. the ceo of the scottish chambers of commerce. your remaining impartial on this independence debate. the voting takes place tomorrow. we are taking soundings from both sides of the divide amongst business leaders. we will talk to the number of business leaders throughout the morning and later on what we hear from the first billionaire in scotland. he is remaining impartial in this debate as well. we'll ask for his insight into the future of the scottish economy. for the more mint, cap to you. lizhat was an edwards with wards.-- that was anna ed >> over 100 disc hillary's and
rent -- distilleries and thousands of brands. in anll it fare independent nation? ♪ >> this old farmhouse doesn't give away much. behind the stone walls, much is bubbling. this is the whiskey distillery. the oldest operating in scotland. it is owned by a drinks giant. it is a small part of the whiskey empire. you get a sense of scale when you look around the storage site. >> this contains thousands of barrels. makes billions of -- that is a lot of whiskey. business is a patient's game. to be called scotch, it must be aged for at least three years here in scotland. much of the distillers are
developing special flavors is all about the perils. country. from bourbon >> is getting shipped over in -- it over tod scotland. >> the value of scotch exports has a most of will over the last decade. the spirit makes up 85% of scotland food and drink exports. it is a massive industry. it is growing. in case you wondered why some squash -- there's a real reason for it. -- as it gets older, there is less and less. the cost would go up. >> there's also the addition of
tax. you could think the british government for that went. -- is: goesum has alone, they are out of the free trade agreements. scotland might also use the british pound. the industry is used to planning ahead. it may not be enjoyed for a generation. time in is a short whiskey. drum?e a >> i'm not partial to whiskey. i have been around the highlands a number of times. every time i go there come you feel obliged to partake. >> really? your pressure? -- peer pressure? [laughter] >> do you like it? >> i do. i went there.
we went around the whiskey distilleries. fervor. quite a massive every now and then it gets right up the nose. >> were he able to walk out of the whiskey distillery? >> yes. with a nice, big grin on my face. [laughter] >> coming up, you might want to listen closer to a talking doll. we will tell you what when mother heard heard daughters barbie doll say. ♪
saying "what the f?" currently what the doll meant to say is, "off the hook." but she's claymation heard -- theming she heard, "what f?" think americans like "off the hook." i don't know which is worse. it is depressing. >> you had barbie in your youth. >> definitely. generally she was naked. either we also have the cindy dolls. it is all coming back to me now. cindy was cooler. >> was she naked as well? >> we managed to keep her clothes in the right place.
[laughter] >> in the champions league kicked off tonight. i shall focus on the clubs. are smiling. they got a penalty in the last minute. manchester united at a player who went back. he didn't score. not a great start for his arsenal team. games to go. they can go back home and problem solve that and try the next. >> where dominating all of the papers at the moment. like the front cover here. there are amazing facts and the times at the moment. the atm stash money is being shut up just in case. >> do follow us on twitter.
ountdown," io "c am anna edwards. we are live in the european headquarters in london. let's get to the head combines -- headlines. the latest polls put the no campaign ahead. china's stimulus boost. is said to have injected more than $80 billion into its largest bank. >> and alibaba arrives in london. they meet investors before what
could be the biggest initial share sale ever. >> welcome back. this is "countdown." on to scotland? >> big news. european car sales have risen for 12 consecutive months. >> the longest on record? >> simple as that. registrations increasing 1.8% in august. sales jumping. led by ford, volkswagen. prior happened after -- to that. period, a low.fell to
the brands are really taking off. >> interesting if you are digging in. audio is not looking so good. , bmwof the luxury makers and mercedes, they had outperformed and write out the austerity -- ride out the yesterday. but now we are seeing audie down. -- audi down. alfa romeo also down. fiat not looking that good. mercedes down and bmw. >> it is the compact cars that are leading. havee car markets, we registrations rising 9.4% in the u.k. sales declining in france and the u.k.. >> we got the invesco and --
investment sentiment. confidence the weakest in 21 months. >> should we quickly do sony? the japanese electronics company, big news across the terminal. it has cut its four-year profit forecast. it had forecast a profit of ¥50 billion. now it is forecasting a loss. a reorganization and rethink of what it is right now. onthey have gotten lost mobile communications. impairment charge of ¥180 billion. even though we has in the japanese economy starting to come out the other side, we are seeing signs of inflation. the stimulus that they fired. we are not seeing it helping
some of their biggest companies. >> it is a hugely competitive industry, isn't it. -- theraditional traditional heartland where the competition is being felt. quick some have said they should split the coming up -- company up. >> it is going to be a loss this year rather than a profit. over scotland plus future enters its final day of complaining this campaigning. -- final day of campaigning. they make a final push to win over voters. let's go to the capital, edinburgh where and not -- and edwards is following the story. what is the latest update? >> thanks, mark. let's give a little more detail. as you say, three polls put the
ahead. they get 62% to the no camp. they all gave us the same reading. they were all showing a decrease in lead for the compared to the last time. that is a word of caution. eight professor on he says he puts the no camp ahead but only by 2%. things incredibly close as we ahead to the independence referendum tomorrow. years of union7 be pushed to one side? on the campaign trail, both sides continue the campaign. a lot of focus on the health service. we were in a shopping center and things turned a little nasty. groups were -- we
he talks about, don't let this opportunity slip through your fingers. it is the most empowering moment any of us will ever have. bill clinton, the latest of the international voices, the latest to step in. ofsays he is sure the people scotland don't need his opinion. but he wants to see the u.k. stick together. he is worried about the paned and the economy. thus the pound and the economy. >> the question of oil reserves is at the heart of any assessment of its future. you have been speaking to some but at the heart of the debate? wood. ian he has been vocal about the subject of reserves.
he gave a range of 12-24,000,000,000 barrels in the north sea. andreport was picked up -- he is angry at the way the amp has used his forecast. he was fairly reluctant to get involved in the campaign. earlier, we heard his views on reserves. i talked to him about investments in north sea oil. i asked whether the uncertainty surrounding the ambit of -- independence referendum had weighed on levels of investment in the north sea. >> i suspect the oil industry believes and is hoping there will not be a change. change,if there is a from the interviews with operators, they would definitely
prefer to deal with the u.k. not because there's anything wrong with scotland, which is a great country. but they like the comfort of the bigger economic unit. a solid country and in no uncertainty. all i'm going to say is i believe it will be more difficult to get the level of investment we require under the change. theny thoughts on how -- oil might be split between the u.k. and scotland if there is a yes vote? is it all up for negotiation? >> i don't think anybody has the level of wisdom to venture a guess. there are a range of things that have to be sorted out and it will be a long, hard -- if there is a yes boat, the best thing that could happen is the sides would try and work together and find ways make the best it can. of what i think is a loss of value.
the u.k. will lose value and so will scotland. i think there will be some top, hard negotiations. i hope there is an too much blood spilled as a result of that. >> let's hope he's talking metaphorically. hisian wood giving thoughts on how oil reserves could be split. the votes take place tomorrow. we will be here throughout that. before the polls open, i thought i would show you some front pages. this is a rupert murdoch paper. a lot of debate as to whether he was going to come down on either side. he has been tweeting, on the fence. face -- fence.he
they trust the people of scotland to make the right choice. fromeader of labour party westminster getting into a bit in a shopping mall in edinburgh. the daily record. keep the heat and carry on campaigning. apparently a slightly better-known slogan. that is a look at some of the front pages. a day to go in the campaigning. >> thanks, anna. keep calm and carry on. see you later. >> let's shift gears. alibaba is in town. the roadshow arrives in london ahead of the initial share sale. trading in new york
on friday. ryan chilcote joins us with the details. they have been upping their price range. investor appetite aplenty. >> exactly. this is an opportunity for the management to pitch their story, in case the investors had not heard it or were not sold on it? because the order books closed afternoon,s following their closure in asia, the reality is the people and investors who will be here probably would have put in their orders. because they are in london and this is a u.s. listing of a company with asian roots, the likelihood is there is a decent chance they will not be getting allocated shares. but it is useful for the investors and alibaba because they can buy shares on the open market when the shares start
onating on friday -- trading friday. it is a genuine generic opportunity to sell their story. theack has been the face of share sale. what will he be focusing on now, ryan? i think he has been clear his big concern and what he has been to avoid is aen facebook like a debut. he has why he has said paid careful attention to the pricing despite the fact that they raised the range. the new minimum is what was the maximum. you think about his wealth. he is a man that, as china's wealthiest, is worth over $20 billion. he is going to sell half a
percent of state. that should garner him $800 million. he is very interested in the first day performance personally. is he wants everyone to get richer with him. watch the pricing on thursday night. there are a lot of people that are saying, 29 times forward it is not tooes expensive. appetite or to be healthy. -- appears to be healthy. this is an opportunity to foster appetite for the shares once they hit the market in new york on friday. froman chilcote live outside where the investors will be gathering later in bishopsgate. estimated earnings, that is well below i do -- baid
u. facebook, when it sold shares, 65 estimated earnings. a discount. he does not want the share price plummeting. >> you can join us on twitter. take part in the conversation. i am mark barton. caroline is at caroline hyde. let us know what you think of the show. >> also, tell us what you think about scotland. still to come, it will not be a scottish tragedy for you kate equities -- u.k equities. and of course, all things mattel.
country will become independent after spending 300 years as part of the country. the gap is closing. morgan market jp strategist david stubbs. there has not been a huge movement in u.k. assets in the last two weeks? that is when the scare has emerged. you see stocks a smidgen lower. not a massive move. >> no. it is a currency issue. if they vote for independence, you don't know what you are buying anymore. i. understand why that creates uncertainty for investors. it is not the uncertainty. it goes on and on about what is going to happen with this, what
is going to happen with that. anyway you slice it, revenues and profits, the number of committees based up there, it is an issue. >> we have talked about how the strength of the british pound has been hurting companies. it might action we help some of their bottom lines. scott of -- scotland is not the be all and end all. what is the be all and end all? it is about janet yellen, the decisions? >> the fed is the main show this week. it will be interesting to see how we get there. there are some speculation we will get a change in the language. i don't know whether that is going to happen. nobody does. if it doesn't go this month, it will almost early go next month. we will get the new forecast. >> where they think interest
rates are going. >> we get the same forecast for where they think unemployment is going to be. the first reading for 2017. that will be entertained to see. -- interesting to see. also the long-term debate about how fast the fed can go once they start tightening. how far can they push things. >> there is a huge discrepancy between what the market is saying, the fed is saying. p tot time for that ga close? >> you can make a case the fed has to go slowly and gradually. ratewe call the terminal is going to be slower than previous cycles. there are some measures in the market which get at that little bit.
that is pointed to somewhere in the mid threes. that is a lot lower than previous interest rate cycle we have seen. that is why it will be interesting to see where the members of the committee put the long-term sustainability of the interest rates. somebody is going to be right and some but is going to be wrong. understandnt, i can why people think interest rates are going to rise later. >> party place yourself as an investor? >> for equities,, we are positive on the u.s. the recovery is deepening. a think there is going to be psycho coming that will be gradual. cycle coming that will be gradual. we have seen an innate -- m and a activity. they have to replace capital stock and make new investments.
i personally think the growth will be later than some people think. --when you are going to get the market is going to be tight enough to see sustained income growth. but we like the u.s. equity market. global markets, strategist at jp morgan. next, we climb aboard one 0's and turn38 left. ♪ >> welcome back.
in london.24 betting that the this is -- the business section will be plush enough to replace the first-class. busthe head of air delivers a plane to -- >> you don't have to go over the moon in providing things. costs it provides -- money and wait. -- weight. it becomes very unaffordable to an airline. we are there to make money.
>> row upon row of business classed -- business class seats with a few luxurious ones upfront. cabin. the first class i'm quite comfortable. the question is how much longer leg i employer pay for the room before they send me back? i can fully stretch out in business. i could sleep through the night. i could not taunt my friends that i was in first and i would have to share the cabin with a lot of other people. this is a business class bathroom. everyone wants to take a look. i can come back here to the bar and enjoy a drink. it is not open to the passengers below. if i meet anyone from business class in the lounge, i can invite them to my quarters for dinner.
you can see how the currencies have performed against each other on a year today basis -- year to date basis. index has risen. it is the only currency to have achieved that. the big debate is about the phrase, considerable. rarely has a word taken so much attention from attention -- investors. investors -- economists say the fed will keep its pledge after it finishes bond purchases. say cutting the language could spook investors. but they give the economic forecasts. the dollar index, the bloomberg dollar spot index is rising. up by 3.8%. in london. hyde these are the top headlines.
president obama described the west africa a bull outbreak as a global security threat. he has pledged to send 3000 troops to the region to assist with the distribution of medical supplies, tilting -- building clinics, and the safe disposal of bodies. he made clear why the international community must step up its response to the crisis. clinics, and the treatment centers that do exist have been completely overwhelmed. weak -- a very weak public health system is near collapse. people are literally dying in the streets. pumping 500d to be billion yuan into the top bank. they may funnel the money to each of the biggest lenders for
a three month time. it is an attempt to provide growth well decrease the danger from bad loans. investors are waiting from the latest -- for the latest minutes from the bank of england. >> the final day before the scottish referendum is upon us. anna is on the ground in edinburgh. good morning. >> good morning. let's update you on what has been going on overnight. , and all gaveolls the same result. they put the no camp ahead by four percentage points. things narrow. with -- the no camp with 52%.
when he considers all the latest polling, only two percentage points for him. 51-49. the last date of campaign will get underway. slightly gloomy, almost rainy. but that will not keep people awake. -- a way. some of the recent polling to 90% in terms of turnout. mp has said,f the s don't let this opportunity slip through our fingers. it is the most empowering moment any of us will ever have. bill clinton is weighing in on the other side of things, the former president of the u.s. saying how he is concerned about the weakness in the pound and what will happen to it. and weakness in the scottish economy resulting from a yes vote, in his view.
that is his thought. hidden knowledge -- he acknowledges the scottish people probably don't need his advice. and campaigning has generally been peaceful, but there were outbreaks of crowds jostling with each other. i wouldn't call it violence. people jostling with each other. he did have to seek refuge in manage -- and managed to make his escape via an elevator. the scottish chamber of commerce sticking to a middle line. as you can imagine are running high around the subject. there are views on either side. scottish business has to wake up and get on with the business of
making and selling things. that's what they are focused on. >> anna, thanks a lot. >> residents in the small scottish town are voting for more than just an dependence. -- independence. they are setting whether to keep nuclear neighbors. vigilant prepares to dive. it is part of the nuclear deterrent. a submarine fleet that is nuclear powered and nuclear armed. this is home. on theal face -- base shores of northwest scotland. the fate of which hinges on the independence vote. to joke that- used i glowed in the dark. >> they have had an uneasy
relationship with the neighbor. it is home to a permanent protest camp. >> it is not often we have an opportunity like this to make an impact on the weapons. >> the community is divided. in this particular community, the majority of people are thinking no. least, the presence of the community. that has a huge economic impact. >> it employs more than six thousand people. one thing is for sure. the navynd votes yes, will have to find a new home for the nuclear subs. somewhere else in the u.k. sure. -- shore. a coming up, we will speak to is this leader in favor of economics. stay with us -- business leader.
i wanted to look at how shares have done. sunday.date for me was that is when the poll showed a photos favor independence. that is when we saw the movement across asset classes. this is sterling versus the dollar. sterling initially fell. evers been cooking back cents. since then, it has fallen. over the same time, the yen against the dollar has fallen by 2%. the euro is unchanged. that is the pound. the is what happened in bond market. same sort of chart. as you can see, i focused on september the eighth. by 10 year yield has risen
six basis points. how does that fair compared to the spanish yield has yield whatd is that fair -- about the stock market? have a look at the ftse 100. same kind of chart. the day after the poll was released, which showed a showed --f voters favored independence for scotland, the ftse has fallen 0.9%. but the index of the 600 big and -- biggest countries has fallen by 1.4%.
assets have not done so bad since the key survey was released on sunday, september the seventh. the big question is how will fareing and the ftse 100 if we get a yes vote on thursday? >> right. scots have been warned of a quote painful's quit -- painful split. but business leaders are in favor of independence. let's go to admiral where an where ans -- edinburgh edwards is. >> we will get to an alternative economist's perspective. dr. jim walker. he is a ceo and founder and joins us now. thank you for talking to us. we have heard some doom laden forecasts coming through. from deutsche bank. what makes you, as an economist,
take a different view? ed to work for a stockbroker. i know it is nice to serve your paymaster. more in favor of independence? it is an achievement if you get your country independent. you said your country free to do things it has never done before. and makes people more optimistic. there is evidence for that across the world. the countries that become independent. >>. about that. what kind of freedom? you say that scotland will be able to keep the pound, even though the government says that is not something they want to happen.
there will be trade benefits for monetary union. what if they weigh those against the other issues and decide it is not worth it? and scotland is not able to keep the pound? currency union is the sensible and mature option for two mature countries. but let's think of one other aspect. the governor of the bank of england does not talk about. a sterling without scotland is incompatible with strength. without scottish u.k. would be running a 7% deficit. anotherld give away percentage points to make -- ofi have heard those kinds
arguments. what about the panama city? -- solution? experience from hong kong of a currency take an action. hasearly every currency come into existence through panic and problems rather than by choice. when hong kong adopted the dollar, it was because the currency rate had gone from five to 13. it was re-pegged and has been there for the last 30 years. you don't start with the perfect conditions, but you can build them up. it doesn'ts -- happen overnight. >> some of the dire warnings have been associated with the short-term about credits we's --
suisse talking about -- with the scottish government have enough, have the wherewithal to fight a currency peg? process.s an 18 month there will be an 18 month process of negotiation. if there is no agreement, then we might have a sterling crisis. but we will have a sterling crisis for the remainder of the u.k. they will have a couple kidded deficit but -- complicated scotland will be doing pretty well. almost a central bank,
every other country that is independent has done that. we can negotiate these things for 18 months. that is not exactly a difficult task. >> one of the upsides of independence from your perspective? if there was a yes vote, what could be future of the scripture come me look like? how different -- future of the scottish economy look like? stop blaming the english, which we have been doing all my life. the english are blamed for everything that goes wrong. that and say, we live within our means and do our own ghthing. that is all the upside? >> won't it just be placed with brussels? >> thank you very much.
good to get your perspective. dr. jim walker. he is ceo and founder of the asianomics group. >> anna edwards live on the ground in edinburgh. in independence supporter. >> you have seen what edinburgh looks like. here's a look of the english capital. >> not much better. >> after the break, what will be driving the trading day ahead. ♪ >> minutes away from the market
open. jonathan ferro joins us. some big movers, but you are focusing on the u.s. we do have the fed decision. >> we should probably start with china. they come out and inject $81 billion in two their five biggest banks. faxmberg news sends them for confirmation, they don't reply. compare and contrast that with what the federal reserve does. who has the communication right? visit china that just does it, or the fed where we are obsessed with the communications roller coaster? >> the fed 20 years ago, the
statement was that long. it.re-1994, you didn't get >> but you had the effect. u.s.e expecting -- the picked up and trade. >> have we been so obsessed with the word considerable? >> the are more obsessed this time. credit to the wall street journal. they did a live video report. he thinks they are going to drop the considerable line. this man very well connected to people in the federal reserve. the market. -- move this view is it stays in their. i think this is up for grabs. that the fed weird would leak it the day before the decision. >> if they do replace it, they
could replace it with the keyword -- p word. >> bottom line, you are saying your data dependent. contingentime reference. it never made sense, anyway. from a communication point of view, across the spectrum, whether you are a hawk or dao ve, we should probably get rid of that. what is built into the reference for a lot of people in the market, if we drop the reference, it means a rate rise is around the corner. >> baby you need a transitional mechanism. >> this is where we we are at. >> yellen has been working. he is managing most of the participants to think we will have slow and steady increases. year -- >> changes.
>> there is no agreement. >> a long-term trend. >> bottom line, they do not have a crystal ball and do not know what will happen. the fed has been terrible at forecasting growth and inflation, unemployment. to put much weight on where the dots are. >> we get mints a bit later. do they mean anything? beforeting took place the scotland scare story started to happen. >> it depends on the outcome of the vote. they meante no, something. if they vote yes, they don't mean anything at all. >> when you -- carney is talking about -- i think that is nuanced. people inyes, most
>> welcome to "on the move." i am jonathan ferro. we are minutes away from the start of european trading. where do i begin? more stimulus from the people's bank of china except they do not put out a statement. compare and contrast that to the federal reserve decision later is upset everyone about that one mind in the federal reserve statement. qe ends next month. everyone asking what is next. we cannot forget about scotland because here with me now is an edwards and hans nichols. >> we are here in edinburg as we count down to the independence referendum that takes place here
tomorrow. for the yesms and no camp in full force. three opinions held out overnight. they put the no campaign slightly ahead. >>.gov very much. i am back from hamburg. we spoke with two ceo's. we talked about the future of the airline industry, the future of the a3 80, the future of first-class. it may be shrinking. you may be relegated to business. >> this does not really apply to me. it applies to you. you are the man that travels first-class among us. european markets have just opened up. futures are higher, ftse 100 up by .3%. we are looking for a higher opening. china stimulus and